Indigenous Groups Launch Process to Recall President Noboa

President Daniel Noboa now faces a formal recall effort — and it’s coming from one of Ecuador’s most powerful political forces.

Several indigenous organizations have announced they are pursuing legal action to revoke President Noboa’s mandate, citing unfulfilled campaign commitments and what they describe as deepening social discontent across the country.

What a Recall Means in Ecuador

Ecuador’s constitution allows for a revocatoria del mandato (recall of mandate) — a legal mechanism to remove an elected official before their term ends. The process requires:

1. A formal petition filed with the National Electoral Council (CNE)
2. Collection of signatures from a specified percentage of registered voters
3. A national referendum if the signature threshold is met
4. A majority vote in the referendum to remove the president

The signature threshold for a presidential recall is 15% of registered voters — approximately 2 million signatures. That’s a steep bar, but not impossible for organizations with deep grassroots infrastructure.

Who’s Behind It

Ecuador’s indigenous movement — led historically by CONAIE (Confederation of Indigenous Nationalities of Ecuador) — has been the most effective mass mobilization force in the country for decades. They toppled presidents in 2000 and 2005, and their 2022 protests against the Lasso government resulted in major policy concessions.

Whether the current recall effort has CONAIE’s full institutional backing or represents smaller affiliated organizations acting independently is not yet clear.

Why Now

The grievances cited include:

• Security failure: The internal armed conflict declaration hasn’t reduced violence — Ecuador is now in the world’s top 10 most violent countries
• Economic pressure: Diesel subsidy removal, rising fuel costs, and the Colombia trade war are squeezing household budgets
• Rejected referendum: Noboa’s November 2025 proposals for a constitutional assembly and foreign military bases were voted down by citizens
• Social spending: Indigenous communities argue that education, healthcare, and rural infrastructure budgets have been sacrificed for security spending

How Likely Is Success?

Historically, presidential recall processes in Ecuador have been announced more often than they’ve succeeded through the formal legal channel. The signature collection requirements are demanding, and the government can deploy political and legal strategies to delay or undermine the process.

However, the political signal matters even if the recall doesn’t reach a referendum. It pressures the government on policy, energizes opposition movements, and creates uncertainty.

What This Means for Expats

• Policy stability: If the recall gains real traction, it creates uncertainty around visa policy, tax reform, and economic direction. Governments under recall pressure tend to either make concessions (good for some, bad for others) or double down on existing strategies
• Protest risk: Indigenous-led mobilizations in Ecuador can be large and disruptive. The 2022 protests shut down major highways for weeks, affecting food supply, fuel distribution, and travel across the country. If this escalates, similar disruptions are possible
• No immediate impact: The recall process takes months — signature collection, verification, referendum scheduling. There’s no imminent threat to governance continuity
• Watch for March: If indigenous organizations set a March mobilization date (common during protest campaigns), that would signal a more serious effort. Stock up on essentials as a precaution if large-scale protests are announced
• Historical context: Ecuador has had 4 presidents removed before their terms ended since 1997. Political instability is not new — the country functions through it, but disruptions are real

Source: Infobae