Ecuador Enters the World’s Top 10 Most Violent Countries, New Report Says

A new international conflict report puts numbers to what many residents already feel: Ecuador is in a sustained security crisis with no clear end in sight.

The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) — a respected international monitoring organization — placed Ecuador in the top 10 most violent countries worldwide in its 2026 Conflict Watchlist, alongside Myanmar, Syria, Mexico, Nigeria, Brazil, and Haiti.

The Key Numbers

• 3,600+ deaths from organized crime violence between January and November 2025 — a 42% increase over the same period in 2024
• 71% of Ecuador’s population (over 12 million people) was exposed to organized crime violence in 2025 — the highest percentage recorded in Latin America
• Ecuador posted the highest homicide rate in Latin America for the third consecutive year
• The country recorded 9,216 total homicides in 2025, described as its most violent year on record

What’s Driving It

Territorial wars: The two dominant criminal organizations — Los Lobos and Los Choneros — are fighting for control of drug trafficking routes and illegal gold exports, particularly in coastal provinces. The July 2025 extradition of Choneros leader José Adolfo Macías Villamar ("Fito") to the United States left a power vacuum that Los Lobos has aggressively tried to fill.

Prison-based operations: Ecuadorian prisons function as operational command centers for criminal organizations. Confrontations that originate inside prisons spill onto the streets. Over 120 inmates have died in 2026 alone due to violence and sanitary conditions.

Drug transit hub: Ecuador’s geographic position between Colombia (production) and Pacific shipping routes (distribution) has made it a critical transshipment point for cocaine heading to the United States, Europe, and increasingly Asia.

Foreign armed groups: Colombian FARC dissidents and the group Comuneros del Sur operate within Ecuadorian territory. The government has designated them as enemies in an active internal armed conflict.

Government Response

President Noboa declared an internal armed conflict and deployed military forces. ACLED’s assessment: the strategy has “not succeeded in containing the violence increase.” Citizens rejected Noboa’s proposals for a constitutional assembly and foreign military bases in a November 2025 referendum.

2026 Outlook

ACLED projects 2026 as a critical year: without territorial consolidation by criminal organizations or state recovery of prison control, violence could expand into new provinces that have so far been relatively safe.

What This Means for Expats

This report matters for context, not panic:

• The violence is concentrated: Most organized crime violence occurs in Guayaquil, Esmeraldas, Los Ríos, Manabí, and El Oro. Highland cities like Cuenca, Quito, and Loja remain significantly safer, though not immune
• Expats are rarely targeted: The violence is overwhelmingly between criminal organizations and between criminals and security forces. Random violence against foreigners is uncommon but not impossible
• Practical precautions: Avoid travel to Esmeraldas province, be cautious in Guayaquil’s southern zones, don’t travel on highways at night in coastal provinces, and stay informed about state-of-emergency curfews in specific cantons
• Insurance and planning: If you haven’t reviewed your health insurance, evacuation coverage, and emergency plans recently, this report is a good reminder to do so
• Perspective: Ecuador’s violence surge is real and serious, but it’s concentrated in specific areas and driven by specific criminal dynamics. The expat experience in Cuenca, Cotacachi, or Vilcabamba remains fundamentally different from the reality in Durán or Esmeraldas

Sources: ACLED Conflict Watchlist 2026, Infobae