Rain, Storms, and Landslide Warnings Through February 19 — Three Provinces on Red Alert as Carnival Weekend Gets Soaked

If your Carnival weekend plans involve travel, check the weather before you leave.

The Forecast

The INAMHI (Instituto Nacional de Meteorología e Hidrología, Ecuador's national weather service) has issued a weather advisory covering February 15 through February 19, 2026, warning of heavy rainfall, electrical storms, and strong wind gusts across most of the country.

Peak intensity periods:

• Saturday evening February 15 through early morning February 16
• February 17-18 — the heart of the Carnival holiday

The forecast is driven by convergence zones, atmospheric instability, warm ocean surface temperatures, and upper-level wind patterns typical of Ecuador's rainy season.

Alert Levels by Province

The SNGR (Servicio Nacional de Gestión de Riesgos, Ecuador's national risk management agency) has the following alerts active:

Red Alert (Maximum Risk) | Province | Key Concern | |----------|------------| | Pichincha | Landslides, flooding in valleys | | Esmeraldas | River overflow, coastal flooding | | Los Ríos | Widespread flooding, agricultural damage |

Orange Alert (High Risk) | Province | Key Concern | |----------|------------| | Zamora Chinchipe | River overflow, landslides | | Bolívar | Mountain road closures | | Guayas | Urban flooding | | El Oro | Southern coast flooding | | Azuay | Afternoon storms, river levels | | Carchi | Northern border flooding | | Cotopaxi | Mountain landslides | | Imbabura | Road instability | | Manabí | Coastal storm damage |

Yellow Alert (Monitoring)

• Tungurahua, Cañar, Pastaza, Santa Elena

What the Alerts Mean

• Red: Maximum surveillance and preparation. Active landslides, flooding, and infrastructure damage occurring or imminent
• Orange: Imminent high risk. Potential river overflows, mudslides, and direct impacts to communities
• Yellow: Preventive monitoring. Rainfall increasing but critical impacts haven't broadly materialized

Weather by Region

Coast (Litoral): The most severe rainfall is expected in Los Ríos, Guayas, Santo Domingo, El Oro, Esmeraldas, and Manabí. INAMHI classifies precipitation levels as "very high." Risk of standing water on roads, river overflow, and urban flooding.

Highlands (Sierra): An unstable atmosphere brings intermittent rainfall, showers, and electrical storms, especially in afternoon and evening hours. Provinces including Pichincha, Imbabura, Tungurahua, and Azuay could experience moderate to strong intensity rainfall, with greater probability in mountainous sectors.

Amazon (Oriente): Significant rainfall accumulation in central and northern areas — Morona Santiago, Pastaza, Orellana, and Sucumbíos.

Galápagos: Widespread rainfall anticipated.

Hazards to Watch For

• Landslides in saturated mountain zones (the Calacalí–La Independencia highway is already completely blocked)
• River overflow and increased water flow in lowland areas
• Road flooding and closures from standing water
• Downed trees from wind gusts
• Reduced visibility from fog, especially on mountain passes
• Electrical storms — dangerous for outdoor activities

Highways Still Closed

As of this weekend, four highways remain completely closed from weather damage:

| Route | Province | Status | |-------|----------|--------| | Calacalí–La Independencia km 36 | Pichincha | Landslide (since Feb 13) | | Quevedo–San Carlos–Anillo Vial | Bolívar | Landslide | | San Luis–Túneles de Coca Codo | Napo | Road collapse | | Vía Paquisha Bellavista | Zamora Chinchipe | Bridge collapse |

Pico y Placa Suspended

Good news for Quito drivers: the Pico y Placa vehicle restriction is suspended on Monday February 16 and Tuesday February 17 for the Carnival holiday. All vehicles circulate freely for 24 hours on both days. The restriction resumes Wednesday, February 18.

Regular Pico y Placa hours (weekdays): 6:00-9:30 AM and 4:00-8:00 PM. Violation fines: $70.50 (first offense), $141 (second), $235 (third).

What This Means for Expats

• Travel cautiously: If you're driving to the coast or between cities, check road conditions on the Abordo EC app and @ECU911 social media before departing. Carry extra water, snacks, and a full tank
• Cuenca residents: Azuay is on orange alert. Expect afternoon thunderstorms through at least February 19. Avoid river crossings and stay off mountain roads after heavy rain
• Quito residents: Pichincha is on red alert — the highest level. Watch for flooding in valley areas (Cumbayá, Tumbaco, Los Chillos) and landslides on hillside roads
• Beach plans: Coastal provinces face the heaviest rainfall. If you're at the beach for Carnival, monitor conditions and be prepared for sudden downpours and rough surf
• Emergency number: ECU 911 for all emergencies nationwide
• Don't drive through standing water: Flash floods can sweep vehicles off roads. If the road is flooded, turn around

Sources: El Mercurio, INAMHI, El Diario, El Universo, KCH Comunicación