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Ecuador's social security pension system has more than doubled its retiree count since 2016 — to 840,456 — while contributing affiliates have stayed flat at 3.54 million. Pension spending hits $7.55 billion in 2026, contributions cover only $3.44 billion. The IESS is requesting $3.05 billion from the government and pulling $1.41 billion from reserves. Here's what's actually happening to Ecuador's pension system.
The Banco Central del Ecuador raised its 2026 GDP growth projection to 2.5%, up 0.7 points from its September forecast. Inflation is expected at 1.8%, private credit to grow 10%, and the external account to post a $6.4 billion surplus. 2025 closed at 3.7% growth — so momentum is slowing.
Ecuador has signed a Safe Third Country agreement with the United States, accepting deportation flights carrying over 4,700 non-Ecuadorian nationals from at least 16 different countries. The agreement makes Ecuador a receiving country for asylum seekers and migrants removed from the U.S.
