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The Banco Central del Ecuador confirmed that GDP grew 3.7% in 2025, pulling the country out of the 2% contraction it suffered in 2024. Growth was driven by exports (+6.4%), investment (+5.6%), and household consumption (+2.7%). The 2026 forecast is a more modest 1.8%.
The World Bank forecasts Ecuador's economy will grow just 2% in 2026, among the lowest rates in Latin America. A fiscal deficit of 3-4% of GDP, expiring security contributions, weakening oil receipts, and likely tax reform paint a challenging picture.
After devastating blackouts throughout 2024 and into 2025, Ecuador's electricity outlook is the most optimistic in over a year. Heavy rains have refilled major reservoirs, Mazar dam hit maximum capacity, and a new 200 MW plant is online. But risks remain.
Ecuador declared a 60-day national emergency on March 12 after relentless rains caused flooding, landslides, and infrastructure damage across the country. At least 11 people have died, 22 rivers have overflowed, and 19 bridges have collapsed since January.
At a 54-nation Critical Minerals Ministerial in Washington, the US formally recognized Ecuador's rare earth elements, copper, and gold deposits as strategically important — unlocking up to $10 billion in EXIM Bank financing and DFC investment guarantees for mining development.
Canadian mining giant Lundin Gold announced a $100 million exploration budget for 2026, targeting 133,000 meters of drilling across its concessions in Zamora Chinchipe province. The investment aims to extend the life of its flagship Fruta del Norte gold mine as gold prices surge toward record highs.
Ecuador's Federation of Exporters (Fedexpor) projects 6-7% export growth for 2026, a significant slowdown from the 18% surge in 2025. Headwinds include US tariff uncertainty, the Colombia trade dispute, and falling cacao prices — but the new US trade deal and flower sector expansion offer upside.
The International Monetary Fund reports Ecuador is 'recovering much faster than anticipated' from the devastating 2024 blackout crisis. Inflation is forecast at just 1.5% for 2026 — among the lowest in Latin America — though housing costs spiked 16.97%.
Quito was pounded by hail and electrical storms Wednesday afternoon, then blanketed by dense fog Thursday morning. Ecuador’s weather agency forecasts intensifying rainfall through March, raising mudslide risk in the capital’s surrounding valleys.
Repeated wave surges have flooded condo lobbies, destroyed sea walls, and damaged vehicles in Salinas and Punta Blanca. Experts warn that sea levels have risen 39 centimeters since the 1970s — and the worst is yet to come.
Ecuador's Naval Oceanographic Institute warns of agitated seas and dangerous rip currents along the entire Pacific coastline on February 17, as a spring tide coincides with Carnival's peak beach crowds. Salinas alone expected up to 300,000 visitors this weekend.
INAMHI forecasts heavy rainfall with electrical storms across most of Ecuador through February 19, with three provinces on red alert and nine on orange. The highlands face afternoon thunderstorms, the coast faces flooding risks, and four highways remain closed from earlier weather damage.
