Ecuador's Country Risk Drops to 404 Points — the Lowest in 11 Years

The Number

Ecuador's country risk index dropped to 404 points as of April 22, 2026 — the lowest level in 11 years, according to the Central Bank of Ecuador (BCE).

For context, this indicator peaked at 6,063 points on March 23, 2020, during the pandemic crisis. At the start of 2025, it stood at 1,186 points. By year-end it had fallen to 492 — a 694-point decline in a single year. In April 2026 alone, it dropped another 83 points.

Finance Minister Sariha Moya: "The confidence of international investors towards Ecuador is reflected in constant country risk reduction."

What Country Risk Actually Measures

Country risk (riesgo país) is the premium a country pays to borrow on international markets above U.S. Treasury bonds. A lower number means global investors trust the country to repay its debts. A higher number means they don't.

At 404 points, Ecuador pays roughly 4% above the U.S. baseline. That's still not investment-grade, but it's a dramatic improvement from the years of 1,000+ readings that followed the pandemic.

The Broader Economic Picture

The country risk decline reflects real improvements across multiple indicators:

| Indicator | Dec 2024 | Dec 2025 | Change | |-----------|----------|----------|--------| | International reserves | $6.899B | $9.795B | +42% | | Adequate employment | 33% | 37% | +4 pts | | Extreme poverty | 28% | 21.4% | -6.6 pts | | Poverty rate | 12.7% | 8.3% | -4.4 pts |

Other key figures:

• GDP growth (2025): 3.7% — exceeding multilateral forecasts
• Trade surplus: $6.227 billion
• Non-petroleum export surplus: $5.032 billion — meaning Ecuador's economic improvement isn't just oil
• Inflation: 1.91% — among the lowest in Latin America

The IMF approved a $394 million disbursement in 2026, part of a roughly $5 billion program with approximately $3.7 billion already transferred.

What This Means for Expats

The dollar stays stable. Lower country risk reduces the already-minimal probability of any challenge to dollarization. The IMF and international investors are betting on Ecuador's trajectory continuing.

Banking conditions improve. Lower sovereign risk eventually translates into better lending terms at Ecuadorian banks — relevant if you're financing property, a vehicle, or a business.

Property values get support. International credibility attracts foreign investment. Cities like Cuenca, Quito, and the coast benefit from increased interest in Ecuadorian real estate.

It's not a clean bill of health. Extreme poverty dropped but is still 21.4%. Adequate employment improved but only 37% of workers qualify. The IMF program comes with fiscal conditions that constrain government spending. And 404 points, while Ecuador's best in a decade, would still be considered elevated by investment-grade standards.

The trajectory is what matters. A year of sustained improvement at this pace changes how global capital views Ecuador — and that affects everything from the interest rate on your local bank account to the resale value of your property.

Sources: El Universo, El Telégrafo