Ecuador Needs 900–1,000 MW It Doesn't Have — and Oil Production Just Hit a 16-Year Low

The Situation

Energy Minister Inés Manzano departed this past week, leaving five unresolved structural problems for her successor. The ministry hasn't named the replacement — but the problems aren't waiting.

The Five Challenges

1. Power Generation Deficit

Ecuador is short between 900 and 1,000 MW of generating capacity. During dry season, hydroelectric output — which normally provides ~85% of the country's electricity — drops to 60-70% of total supply.

Demand hit a historic peak of 5,374 MW on April 14, 2026. The system is running at its limits.

2. Transmission Infrastructure

The government has not made investments to upgrade and expand transmission and distribution networks. Verbatim from the analysis: "no se han realizado inversiones para repotenciar y ampliar las redes."

This means even when generation capacity exists, the grid can't always deliver it where demand is highest.

3. Oil Production Collapse

Petroecuador output fell to 349,167 barrels per day — a 7.9% year-over-year decline in 2025, making it the worst production year since 2003.

Oil revenue funds the national budget. Less production means less money for infrastructure, social spending, and energy investment — a downward spiral.

4. Sacha Field Concession

The government committed to opening public bids for the Sacha oil field as part of a March 13, 2026 trade agreement with the United States. This is Ecuador's largest onshore field and its concession process is politically sensitive.

5. Dormant Mining Cadastre

The mining cadastre (catastro minero) has been inactive since 2018. Major projects like Loma Larga remain suspended, blocking billions in potential investment.

What This Means for Expats

Blackout risk remains real. The 900-1,000 MW deficit means power rationing is possible during dry months (roughly October–February). If you experienced the 2023-2024 blackouts, the underlying causes have not been fixed.

Gasoline and diesel supply. Declining domestic oil production means Ecuador may need to increase fuel imports, potentially affecting pump prices or availability in remote areas.

Economic trajectory. Oil and mining are Ecuador's two largest potential revenue sources. Both are underperforming or frozen. This constrains the government's ability to invest in infrastructure, healthcare, and security — all of which directly affect quality of life.

If you're in Cuenca or the Sierra: Hydroelectric dependency is highest in highland regions served by Paute and Mazar dams. When those reservoirs drop, the Sierra feels it first.

Practical preparation: Keep a UPS for electronics, maintain flashlight/candle reserves, and if you work from home, have a mobile hotspot as backup. The structural deficit hasn't been addressed.

Source: Primicias