Daily coverage from across the country, written for the expat community
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President Noboa presented Q1 2026 economic results in a national broadcast. Sales hit $63.2 billion (vs $57.7B Q1 2025). Country risk dropped from 1,908 bps a year ago to 416 today. Public investment jumped from $42M to $533M YoY. Here's what the government is claiming and what to actually take from it.
The Banco Central del Ecuador raised its 2026 GDP growth projection to 2.5%, up 0.7 points from its September forecast. Inflation is expected at 1.8%, private credit to grow 10%, and the external account to post a $6.4 billion surplus. 2025 closed at 3.7% growth — so momentum is slowing.
The IMF raised its 2026 GDP growth projection for Ecuador from 2% to 2.5% in the latest World Economic Outlook, presented at the Washington spring meetings. That puts Ecuador above the 2.3% South American average. For context, Ecuador posted 3.7% growth in 2025.
Ecuador's Semana Santa holiday generated an estimated 800,000 domestic trips and $70 million in economic activity. Manta led all destinations with 158,000 visitors and 80% hotel occupancy, while Amazon lodges hit 90%. A temporary VAT cut to 8% for tourism services sweetened the deal.
The Banco Central del Ecuador confirmed that GDP grew 3.7% in 2025, pulling the country out of the 2% contraction it suffered in 2024. Growth was driven by exports (+6.4%), investment (+5.6%), and household consumption (+2.7%). The 2026 forecast is a more modest 1.8%.
The World Bank forecasts Ecuador's economy will grow just 2% in 2026, among the lowest rates in Latin America. A fiscal deficit of 3-4% of GDP, expiring security contributions, weakening oil receipts, and likely tax reform paint a challenging picture.
Ecuador's Constitutional Court declared the SECA trade agreement with South Korea compliant on March 19. The deal grants tariff-free access for 98.8% of Ecuadorian products and covers investment, technology transfer, energy, and infrastructure cooperation.
Ecuador's 2026 local elections will determine mayors, prefects, and city council members across the country. Contested races in Quito, Guayaquil, and Cuenca could reshape municipal governance in the cities where most expats live.
Ecuador's economy is projected to grow approximately 2% in 2026 with inflation holding near 1.5%. Country risk stands at 460 basis points. Here is what the numbers mean for expats living on dollar-denominated income in a dollarized economy.
The United States and Ecuador formally signed their Agreement on Reciprocal Trade on March 13, 2026, cutting tariffs on 53% of non-oil exports worth $2.8 billion. Key sectors including bananas, shrimp, cocoa, coffee, and flowers get preferential access, while Ecuador eliminates its price band system on U.S. agricultural imports.
The International Monetary Fund reports Ecuador is 'recovering much faster than anticipated' from the devastating 2024 blackout crisis. Inflation is forecast at just 1.5% for 2026 — among the lowest in Latin America — though housing costs spiked 16.97%.
Lonely Planet's Best in Travel 2026 features horseback riding among Ecuador's chagra cowboys near Volcán Cotopaxi as one of 25 must-do experiences worldwide. The recognition comes as tourism numbers approach pre-pandemic levels and Cuenca rents climb 20% in central neighborhoods.
