Los Ríos Rice Harvest Opens With No Buyers — Colombia Trade War Blocking Exports

The Story

Rice producers in Los Ríos province are beginning their winter harvest season in bad shape. Per Expreso (source), Adriano Ubilla, president of the Asociación de Productores de Ciclo Corto de Los Ríos, laid out the math.

The Numbers

Harvest forecast:

• This winter: 305,000 to 320,000 tons (expected)
• Normal winter: ~400,000 tons
• Estimated losses: 95,000 tons (50,000 from flooding + 45,000 from drought)

Quote from Ubilla: "En esta cosecha habrá menos arroz y, pese a eso, las piladoras no quieren comprar" — this harvest will have less rice, and despite that, the mills don't want to buy.

Prices:

• Current buyer offer: $29 per quintal
• Minimum support price (precio mínimo de sustentación): $34 per quintal

Buyers are paying $5 per quintal below the legal floor — a ~15% shortfall against what farmers are supposed to receive.

Additional quote from José Luis García, coordinator: "Habrá un 20 % menos de la cosecha" — there will be 20% less harvest than normal.

Why Buyers Aren't Buying

Expreso points to the Ecuador-Colombia trade war: "no han logrado exportar el excedente de la cosecha anterior debido al conflicto comercial entre Ecuador y Colombia."

Mills are sitting on unsold surplus from the previous harvest that they couldn't export to Colombia because of the bilateral trade disputes. Instead of clearing old inventory and buying new, they're refusing new purchases — or offering below-floor prices.

What This Means for Expats

• Rice is Ecuador's staple carbohydrate, and Los Ríos is one of the country's major producing provinces. If the harvest collapses and the market dysfunction continues, expect upward pressure on retail rice prices over the coming months — especially in coastal cities.
• For expat households, this is a real cost-of-living signal. Rice, chicken, and produce are Ecuador's three pillars of affordable food. When any one of them gets squeezed, the others usually follow.
• For agricultural investors: the combined effect of climate damage (flooding + drought = 95,000 tons lost) plus the export blockage (Colombia) is a textbook stress signal. Smaller operators on the coast are likely exiting or consolidating, which creates both opportunities and risks.
• The Colombia dimension is not isolated. Noboa's April 13 comments making clear that Ecuador-Colombia dialogue is effectively paused until Colombia's next president mean this export bottleneck is not getting fixed in the next few months.
• Short-term tactic: if you're buying rice in bulk, watch prices in April–May. If they begin rising noticeably, locking in now could be worth it.

Source: Expreso