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The Banco Central del Ecuador raised its 2026 GDP growth projection to 2.5%, up 0.7 points from its September forecast. Inflation is expected at 1.8%, private credit to grow 10%, and the external account to post a $6.4 billion surplus. 2025 closed at 3.7% growth — so momentum is slowing.
The Banco Central del Ecuador confirmed that GDP grew 3.7% in 2025, pulling the country out of the 2% contraction it suffered in 2024. Growth was driven by exports (+6.4%), investment (+5.6%), and household consumption (+2.7%). The 2026 forecast is a more modest 1.8%.
Ecuador is positioned to become the world's second-largest cocoa grower behind Cote d'Ivoire. Anecacao projects exports exceeding 623,000 metric tons in 2026, up from 375,720 MT in 2023. The country is targeting 800,000 MT by the end of the decade.
In a CNN en Espanol interview on March 20, President Noboa defended Ecuador's commercial relationship with China while reaffirming the country's deepening military and diplomatic alliance with the United States.
The United States and Ecuador have concluded negotiations on a historic Agreement on Reciprocal Trade (ART) that eliminates the 15% surcharge on roughly half of Ecuador's non-petroleum exports — worth $3.2 billion annually. The deal shields Ecuadorian flowers, bananas, cacao, and seafood from the new 10% global US tariff.
