Ecuador Cacao Exports on Track to Surpass Ghana -- Projected 623,000+ MT in 2026

Ecuador's cacao industry is on the verge of a historic milestone -- surpassing Ghana to become the world's number two cocoa producer. The numbers behind this rise tell a story of rapid agricultural expansion with significant economic implications.

The Projection

Anecacao (Asociacion Nacional de Exportadores de Cacao -- Ecuador's national cocoa exporters' association) estimates that Ecuador will export more than 623,000 metric tons (MT) of cocoa in 2026. The 2026/27 production season may exceed 650,000 MT.

To put this in perspective:

| Year | Ecuador Cocoa Exports | |---|---| | 2023 | 375,720 MT | | 2024 | ~480,000 MT (estimated) | | 2025 | ~550,000 MT (estimated) | | 2026 | 623,000+ MT (projected) | | 2030 target | 800,000 MT |

That's a projected 66% increase in just three years from the 2023 baseline -- extraordinary growth for an agricultural commodity.

The Global Context

The world's top cocoa producers are reshuffling:

| Rank | Country | Approx. Annual Production | |---|---|---| | 1 | Cote d'Ivoire | ~2,200,000 MT | | 2 | Ghana | ~700,000 MT (declining) | | 3 | Ecuador | ~623,000 MT (surging) | | 4 | Cameroon | ~290,000 MT | | 5 | Nigeria | ~280,000 MT |

Ghana's production has been declining due to aging cocoa trees, swollen shoot virus disease, illegal gold mining destroying farmland, and inadequate producer prices that have driven farmers to other crops. Meanwhile, Ecuador's production is surging, powered by new plantings, improved varieties, and favorable growing conditions.

If current trends continue, Ecuador could overtake Ghana as the world's number two cocoa producer as early as the 2026/27 season.

Why Ecuador's Cacao Is Special

Ecuador's cocoa industry has a unique advantage that goes beyond volume: quality.

Ecuador is the world's largest producer of cacao fino de aroma (fine or flavor cocoa) -- a premium category that accounts for only about 5-8% of global cocoa production but commands significantly higher prices.

Cacao Nacional, Ecuador's heritage variety, is prized by chocolate makers for its floral, fruity, and nutty flavor profiles -- distinct from the more standardized taste of West African cocoa, which dominates bulk chocolate production.

This quality distinction means Ecuador operates in two markets simultaneously:

1. Bulk cocoa -- competing on volume and price with West Africa, primarily the CCN-51 hybrid variety that produces higher yields but less distinctive flavor
2. Fine flavor cocoa -- commanding premium prices from artisanal and specialty chocolate manufacturers worldwide, using Cacao Nacional and other fine varieties

The CCN-51 variety has driven most of Ecuador's volume growth. It's a high-yield, disease-resistant hybrid developed in Ecuador that produces roughly three times the output of traditional Nacional trees. However, its expansion has generated debate within the industry about whether Ecuador should prioritize volume (and risk commoditizing its product) or protect its premium reputation.

Where Cacao Grows

Cocoa is cultivated across Ecuador's coastal lowlands and parts of the Amazon:

• Los Rios Province -- Ecuador's largest cocoa-producing province
• Guayas Province -- significant production, proximity to Guayaquil port
• Manabi Province -- growing region, particularly for Nacional varieties
• Esmeraldas Province -- northern coast, known for fine flavor cacao
• Sucumbios and Orellana -- Amazon region, smaller scale but expanding

The industry employs an estimated 100,000+ farming families and supports a processing and export chain that generates billions in revenue.

Economic Impact

Cocoa is becoming one of Ecuador's economic pillars:

• 2023 export value: approximately $1.2 billion
• 2026 projected export value: potentially exceeding $2 billion, depending on global prices
• Global cocoa prices surged in 2024-2025 due to West African supply disruptions, reaching historic highs above $10,000/MT. While prices have moderated, they remain well above historical averages
• The timing is fortunate for Ecuador. The country is expanding production precisely when global supply constraints from West Africa are creating market opportunities

Combined with shrimp ($7.47B in 2025) and bananas (~$3.5B annually), cacao strengthens Ecuador's agricultural export portfolio -- reducing dependence on oil revenue.

Challenges Ahead

The growth trajectory isn't without risks:

• Cadmium contamination: Ecuador's soils naturally contain elevated levels of cadmium, a heavy metal that cocoa trees absorb. The European Union has implemented strict cadmium limits for chocolate products, which could restrict market access for some Ecuadorian cocoa
• Deforestation concerns: Cocoa expansion can drive forest clearing, particularly in the Amazon foothills. Sustainable sourcing certifications are increasingly required by international buyers
• Price volatility: Global cocoa prices are notoriously volatile. The current high prices may not persist, and overproduction could trigger price collapses
• Infrastructure bottlenecks: Port capacity, road access in rural growing regions, and post-harvest processing facilities need investment to support the projected volumes

What This Means for Expats

• Ecuador's economy is diversifying in real time. Cacao joining shrimp as a multi-billion-dollar export sector reduces the country's oil dependence and improves long-term economic stability. This is good news for anyone whose financial life is tied to Ecuador
• You're living in one of the world's chocolate capitals. Ecuador produces some of the finest cocoa on Earth. If you haven't visited a cacao farm, toured a chocolate factory, or explored the artisanal chocolate scene, you're missing one of the country's genuine world-class offerings
• Coastal and rural real estate may benefit. Regions where cacao production is expanding -- Los Rios, Manabi, parts of Guayas -- see economic activity increase as farming incomes rise. This can affect local property values and development
• Watch the cadmium issue. If the EU tightens cadmium standards further, it could disrupt Ecuador's premium cocoa exports and create economic stress in producing regions. This is a regulatory risk worth monitoring
• The 800,000 MT target by decade's end is ambitious but plausible. If achieved, Ecuador would firmly establish itself as a global cocoa superpower -- a title that carries economic, diplomatic, and cultural weight

Source: Reuters / Anecacao