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Regressive erosion on the Coca River has damaged key infrastructure for more than six years, with estimated losses between $4.7 billion and $5.5 billion through May 2026. The risk matters nationally because Coca Codo Sinclair supplies about 25% of Ecuador's average electricity demand.
Celec says high river flows, sediment and rocky material damaged part of the Coca Codo Sinclair area after more than 20 continuous hours of pressure from the Coca River. El Comercio reports the national electric system remains guaranteed, but the episode shows why Amazon river conditions still matter for electricity users across Ecuador.
Without Colombian electricity and an unreliable Coca Codo Sinclair plant, Ecuador's grid operator projects rolling blackout risk during the October-March dry season. The government is scrambling to rent diesel generators.
Energy sector expert Marco Acuña warned on April 8 that Ecuador has registered an electrical generation deficit that could trigger power cuts during peak hours. The government disagrees, but Colombia's energy cutoff and Coca Codo Sinclair's chronic underperformance create real vulnerability.
Ecuador will formally accept its largest hydroelectric plant from Chinese builder Sinohydro by April 17, despite more than 7,600 documented fissures in critical equipment that the Comptroller ordered repaired. The settlement releases approximately $200 million in guarantees back to Sinohydro. The plant currently operates at less than half its 1,500 MW capacity.
A U.S. Army Corps of Engineers study warns that Coca River erosion could reach the 1,500 MW Coca Codo Sinclair hydroelectric plant's water intake by 2026. The plant provides roughly one-third of Ecuador's national electricity. Recent rains have improved reservoir levels, and a new 200 MW plant has come online.
After devastating blackouts throughout 2024 and into 2025, Ecuador's electricity outlook is the most optimistic in over a year. Heavy rains have refilled major reservoirs, Mazar dam hit maximum capacity, and a new 200 MW plant is online. But risks remain.
Ecuador's grid operator CENACE has ordered businesses to self-generate electricity from 9 AM to 11 PM on weekdays since March 17. The Coca Codo Sinclair dam is operating at 37% capacity, and Colombia has suspended 450 MW in electricity exports.
