Coca River Erosion Has Caused Up to $5.5B in Losses

Regressive erosion on the Coca River has become one of Ecuador's biggest infrastructure risks, with losses now estimated between $4.7 billion and $5.5 billion through May 2026.

The affected infrastructure includes oil pipelines, fuel pipelines, sections of the Lago Agrio-Quito road, bridges, populated areas, environmental mitigation work, and projects meant to slow the erosion itself.

Why the Risk Is National

The erosion accelerated after the collapse of the San Rafael waterfall in February 2020. Since then, the front has moved toward the intake works for Coca Codo Sinclair, Ecuador's largest hydroelectric plant.

Coca Codo Sinclair has 1,500 megawatts of installed capacity and covers about 25% of national electricity demand, which averages 4,200 megawatts.

A June 18, 2026 monitoring report from Celec, Ecuador's electric corporation, says the erosion has advanced more than 15 kilometers from the original point at San Rafael and is now 3.6 kilometers from the intake works.

Sediment Is Part of the Problem

The erosion has also moved an estimated 500 million tons of sediment in more than six years. Specialists warn that sediment accumulation can threaten the discharge tunnel area and the operation of the plant's machine house.

The government has acknowledged the risk. On June 12, Environment and Energy Minister Juan Carlos Blum said the plant is in a zone of very high risk and said a ministerial commission would be formed to speed up contracting for protection works.

What This Means for Expats

For expats, this is not just an Amazon-region infrastructure story. Coca Codo Sinclair is a central part of Ecuador's power system, and damage to the plant or related infrastructure could affect electricity reliability, road connectivity, public finances, and fuel logistics.

The practical takeaway is to keep watching official energy and road updates, especially if you live in areas affected by past power rationing or travel frequently between the Sierra and Amazon regions.