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Banco Pichincha went from $42M to $88M in profits. Banco del Pacífico: $46M to $84M. The president posted the numbers on X and questioned who benefits from the crisis narrative.
Ecuador's riesgo país fell to 404 points on April 22, the lowest since 2015. GDP grew 3.7% in 2025, international reserves jumped 42%, and the IMF just disbursed another $394 million. Here's what the improving trajectory means for expats.
The Banco Central del Ecuador raised its 2026 GDP growth projection to 2.5%, up 0.7 points from its September forecast. Inflation is expected at 1.8%, private credit to grow 10%, and the external account to post a $6.4 billion surplus. 2025 closed at 3.7% growth — so momentum is slowing.
The Banco Central del Ecuador confirmed that GDP grew 3.7% in 2025, pulling the country out of the 2% contraction it suffered in 2024. Growth was driven by exports (+6.4%), investment (+5.6%), and household consumption (+2.7%). The 2026 forecast is a more modest 1.8%.
Gasoline and diesel prices in Ecuador are expected to increase approximately 5% when the monthly band adjustment takes effect on April 12. Extra and ecopais gasoline currently at $2.89/gallon and diesel premium at $2.82/gallon are being pushed higher by WTI crude above $100/barrel.
January 2026 crude production hit 466,400 bbl/d, down 1.8% year-over-year and 13% below a decade ago. Illegal pipeline taps surged from 36 in 2022 to 770 in 2024, costing $100 million annually. Ecuador needs 550,000 bbl/d just to cover basic fiscal needs.
Ecuador's economy is projected to grow approximately 2% in 2026 with inflation holding near 1.5%. Country risk stands at 460 basis points. Here is what the numbers mean for expats living on dollar-denominated income in a dollarized economy.
Ecuador's international reserves reached $11,940 million as of March 13, 2026 — the highest level in the country's history. In a dollarized economy, reserves directly back every dollar in circulation, making this a significant indicator of financial stability.
Canadian mining giant Lundin Gold announced a $100 million exploration budget for 2026, targeting 133,000 meters of drilling across its concessions in Zamora Chinchipe province. The investment aims to extend the life of its flagship Fruta del Norte gold mine as gold prices surge toward record highs.
Informal moneylenders continue to charge usurious interest rates in Loja’s market economy despite government programs offering subsidized microloans — a problem that traps local vendors in debt cycles and affects the cost of goods for everyone, expats included.
Ecuador’s largest gold mine exported a record $1.8 billion in 2025 — a 51% jump from the prior year — as gold prices topped $5,000 per ounce for the first time. Lundin Gold just announced $100 million in new exploration spending and discovered a fifth copper-gold deposit, signaling the mining boom is just getting started.
The U.S. dollar has lost ground against major currencies, creating a mixed bag for Ecuador's dollarized economy: exports become more competitive and tourism gets a boost, but import costs rise — and you'll feel it at the supermarket.
