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Bilateral trade between Ecuador and Colombia fell 44% year-over-year in February 2026, the first month of the tariff war — to just $124.9 million. Ecuadorian imports from Colombia dropped 66%. Exports fell 20%. Pharma imports collapsed 34%, industrial chemicals 48%, and Rumichaca's transport hub has ground to a halt.
The Banco Central del Ecuador raised its 2026 GDP growth projection to 2.5%, up 0.7 points from its September forecast. Inflation is expected at 1.8%, private credit to grow 10%, and the external account to post a $6.4 billion surplus. 2025 closed at 3.7% growth — so momentum is slowing.
Ecuador's Production, Foreign Trade, Investment and Fisheries Minister Luis Alberto Jaramillo met with the Ecuadorian-American Chamber of Commerce in Guayaquil on April 14 to walk through the US Reciprocal Trade Agreement. Headline: 57% of non-oil exports get zero tariffs. Concerns: competition with subsidized US agricultural products.
Ecuador's April 9 imposition of a 100% tariff on Colombian products — targeting $2 billion in annual bilateral trade — has triggered the deepest institutional crisis the Comunidad Andina has faced in its 57-year existence. Former Colombian president Álvaro Uribe publicly warned Ipiales is "in ruin."
President Noboa said on April 13 that he has "no great hope" that Colombian President Gustavo Petro will change course on border security or commercial reciprocity. Ecuador will wait for Colombia's next administration before attempting a long-term solution. The trade war continues.
WTI crude oil tumbled more than 15% to $95/barrel on April 8 after Trump postponed his Iran infrastructure strike threat, then rebounded 7.3% to $101.28 on April 9. For Ecuador — both an oil exporter and a country where consumers pay market fuel prices — this volatility cuts both ways.
After Colombia's President Petro asked Noboa to release former Vice President Jorge Glas during a meeting in the Galápagos, Ecuador's government pushed back hard — rejecting the 'political prisoners' framing and affirming that Glas is detained for corruption, not politics.
Ecuador has slapped 50% tariffs on Colombian imports, threatened to cut electricity sales, and hiked pipeline transit fees by 900%. With $2.8 billion in bilateral trade at risk, Colombian products are getting more expensive and de-escalation talks are just beginning.
Ecuador and Colombia have imposed tit-for-tat tariffs reaching 50% on hundreds of goods, putting approximately $2.8 billion in annual bilateral trade at risk. Colombia has also suspended electricity exports and faces retaliatory pipeline fee increases from Ecuador.
The World Bank forecasts Ecuador's economy will grow just 2% in 2026, among the lowest rates in Latin America. A fiscal deficit of 3-4% of GDP, expiring security contributions, weakening oil receipts, and likely tax reform paint a challenging picture.
January 2026 crude production hit 466,400 bbl/d, down 1.8% year-over-year and 13% below a decade ago. Illegal pipeline taps surged from 36 in 2022 to 770 in 2024, costing $100 million annually. Ecuador needs 550,000 bbl/d just to cover basic fiscal needs.
Ecuador and the United States signed a bilateral trade agreement on March 18 granting tariff-free access for 53% of Ecuador's non-oil exports, worth $2.786 billion. The deal covers 1,673 tariff subheadings including bananas, shrimp, cocoa, coffee, and flowers.
