Colombia–Ecuador Trade War Update: Colombian Exports to Ecuador Down 27% So Far in 2026

The Numbers Keep Falling

Ecuador's trade war with Colombia — sparked by Quito's decision to impose a "security tariff" on Colombian imports earlier this year — has now delivered its first hard data. Per Primicias, citing figures from Colombia's tax authority DIAN:

• "las ventas de ese país hacia Ecuador disminuyeron 27% entre enero y febrero de 2026" — Colombian exports to Ecuador fell 27% in January–February 2026.
• "entre febrero y marzo, tras el inicio de la guerra comercial, las compras desde Colombia cayeron 57%, alcanzando los USD 124,8 millones" — between February and March, after the trade war kicked in, Ecuador's purchases from Colombia dropped 57%, down to $124.8 million.

The Tariff Timeline

| Date | Ecuador's tariff on Colombian imports | |------|---------------------------------------| | Feb 1, 2026 | 30% security tariff imposed | | Mar 1, 2026 | Raised to 50% | | May 1, 2026 | Scheduled to reach 100% |

Colombia has responded in kind, though on a slightly lagged schedule:

• Feb 24, 2026: Colombia's countermeasures began.
• Mar 6, 2026: Raised to 50%.

The ratcheting nature of the tariffs — both sides escalating on a publicly announced timetable — means the real economic pain hasn't landed yet. May 1 is the date to watch.

What's Actually Crossing the Border

Per DIAN's Jan–Feb 2026 data:

• Electricity exports (Colombia to Ecuador): $25.3 million — down 77% versus the year-ago period. This is a direct consequence of Ecuador buying less Colombian electricity as the grid crisis forces the country to lean harder on its own generation.
• Medicines: $8.4 million — up 27.3%. Ecuador can't easily substitute away from Colombian pharmaceuticals in the short term, so tariffs notwithstanding, the flow has continued.
• Ecuador's exports to Colombia: $187.7 million — up 32%. Ecuador's side of the ledger has actually improved, though mostly due to base effects and pre-existing commodity flows.

The top Colombian exporters to Ecuador by volume in this period: Colgate Palmolive ($7.8M), Hino Motors ($5M), and Procaps ($4.8M).

Who's Talking

Two Colombian trade voices cited in the Primicias piece:

• Javier Díaz, president of Analdex (Colombia's exporters association).
• Freddy Cevallos, president of Camecol (Ecuador-Colombia Chamber of Commerce).

Both are pushing for de-escalation. So far, that hasn't changed the tariff schedule.

What This Means for Expats

• Supermarket prices for certain imported goods are going to rise further after May 1. Anything that currently comes from Colombia — notably household and personal care products, some processed foods, and certain pharmaceuticals — is already more expensive than it was in January, and will be more expensive still when the tariff hits 100%.
• Watch for substitution. Products that were previously Colombian-sourced will increasingly come from Peru, Chile, Mexico, or Ecuadorian domestic producers. Brand mix on the shelf will visibly change.
• The energy dimension is significant. Ecuador's 77% cut in Colombian electricity imports is tied to both the tariff and to Ecuador's own grid overhaul. It also means Ecuador has less slack during heatwave demand spikes — and yes, this is connected to the current blackouts.
• If you're importing anything from Colombia personally (business equipment, inventory, vehicles), the tariff now applies at 50% and will climb to 100% on May 1. Check the Harmonized Code for your specific goods with a customs broker before you ship.
• This is a real trade war, not a rhetorical one. The escalation schedule is public and the numbers already show substantial trade destruction. Expect more sectoral lobbying and possibly a political climbdown before May 1, but don't bet the household budget on it.

Source: Primicias