Daily coverage from across the country, written for the expat community
Results for “growth”Clear
President Noboa presented Q1 2026 economic results in a national broadcast. Sales hit $63.2 billion (vs $57.7B Q1 2025). Country risk dropped from 1,908 bps a year ago to 416 today. Public investment jumped from $42M to $533M YoY. Here's what the government is claiming and what to actually take from it.
The Banco Central del Ecuador raised its 2026 GDP growth projection to 2.5%, up 0.7 points from its September forecast. Inflation is expected at 1.8%, private credit to grow 10%, and the external account to post a $6.4 billion surplus. 2025 closed at 3.7% growth — so momentum is slowing.
The National Assembly approved a law making financial education mandatory across all levels of Ecuador's education system, from early childhood to university. The curriculum will cover electronic fraud prevention, safe digital platform use, and AI literacy. Revolución Ciudadana voted against despite one legislator calling it 'objective and technical.'
Economy Minister Sariha Moya presented Ecuador's fiscal efficiency formula at the IMF Spring Meetings in Washington on April 14. Her headline numbers: international reserves up from $3 billion to $11 billion, poverty down from 28% to 21% in 2025, and local-government payment delays cut by 85%. She credited the fuel subsidy phase-out that ran from June 2024 through September 2025.
The IMF raised its 2026 GDP growth projection for Ecuador from 2% to 2.5% in the latest World Economic Outlook, presented at the Washington spring meetings. That puts Ecuador above the 2.3% South American average. For context, Ecuador posted 3.7% growth in 2025.
President Noboa has declared 2026 'the year of construction,' with sector sales up 20.5%, real estate transactions up 17.8%, and $6.5 billion in purchase-sale promises on the books through 2028. Government incentives include preferential mortgages, IVA refunds for builders, and a new social housing law.
Ecuador's national hotel occupancy reached 40.3% in the most recent reporting period, up 3.6 percentage points year-over-year. The recovery is real but modest — pre-pandemic occupancy averaged 50-55% nationally. Coastal and Galápagos properties are leading the rebound.
Ecuador's National Assembly passed a new mining and energy law 77-70 on February 26, replacing environmental licenses with simplified authorizations and allowing rock extraction in the Galapagos Islands. CONAIE and environmental groups are protesting the changes as a rollback of decades of conservation policy.
Ecuador became the first Latin American country to sign a security cooperation agreement with Europol, the European Union's law enforcement agency. Published in the Official Register on March 30, the deal enables joint operations against transnational organized crime and has already produced results -- including the dismantling of a cocaine network tied to Los Lobos and Albanian criminal organizations.
The European Commission concluded negotiations on a Sustainable Investment Facilitation Agreement (SIFA) with Ecuador -- the EU's first such deal with any Latin American country. The agreement focuses on streamlining investment authorizations, improving transparency, and includes a first-of-its-kind annex on sustainable energy and raw materials.
The Banco Central del Ecuador confirmed that GDP grew 3.7% in 2025, pulling the country out of the 2% contraction it suffered in 2024. Growth was driven by exports (+6.4%), investment (+5.6%), and household consumption (+2.7%). The 2026 forecast is a more modest 1.8%.
Ecuador shipped 125,200 tonnes of shrimp in January 2026, a 23% increase year-over-year. China remains the top buyer at 49.5% of volume, though its share has declined from 54.2% in 2024. The industry projects a 15% increase for the full year.
