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A U.S. Army Corps of Engineers study warns that Coca River erosion could reach the 1,500 MW Coca Codo Sinclair hydroelectric plant's water intake by 2026. The plant provides roughly one-third of Ecuador's national electricity. Recent rains have improved reservoir levels, and a new 200 MW plant has come online.
After devastating blackouts throughout 2024 and into 2025, Ecuador's electricity outlook is the most optimistic in over a year. Heavy rains have refilled major reservoirs, Mazar dam hit maximum capacity, and a new 200 MW plant is online. But risks remain.
In a CNN en Espanol interview on March 20, President Noboa defended Ecuador's commercial relationship with China while reaffirming the country's deepening military and diplomatic alliance with the United States.
Ecuador's grid operator CENACE has ordered businesses to self-generate electricity from 9 AM to 11 PM on weekdays since March 17. The Coca Codo Sinclair dam is operating at 37% capacity, and Colombia has suspended 450 MW in electricity exports.
Ecuador and Colombia have imposed 50% tariffs on each other's imports in an escalating trade war that puts $2.8 billion in bilateral trade at risk. Colombia has also suspended electricity exports and raised pipeline fees by 900%.
President Daniel Noboa has been invited to a Trump-hosted Latin American presidential summit on March 7 in Miami, aimed at countering Chinese influence in the region. The U.S. also highlighted Ecuador's mining potential and signed a critical minerals agreement.
