Daily coverage from across the country, written for the expat community
Results for “recession”Clear
The Banco Central del Ecuador raised its 2026 GDP growth projection to 2.5%, up 0.7 points from its September forecast. Inflation is expected at 1.8%, private credit to grow 10%, and the external account to post a $6.4 billion surplus. 2025 closed at 3.7% growth — so momentum is slowing.
A magnitude 5.5 earthquake struck off Ecuador's coast near Santa Elena and Guayas early Saturday morning, April 4. The quake was felt across 6 provinces but caused no damage, injuries, or tsunami alert. It follows a 4.1 magnitude tremor near Loja on April 2.
The Banco Central del Ecuador confirmed that GDP grew 3.7% in 2025, pulling the country out of the 2% contraction it suffered in 2024. Growth was driven by exports (+6.4%), investment (+5.6%), and household consumption (+2.7%). The 2026 forecast is a more modest 1.8%.
The World Bank forecasts Ecuador's economy will grow just 2% in 2026, among the lowest rates in Latin America. A fiscal deficit of 3-4% of GDP, expiring security contributions, weakening oil receipts, and likely tax reform paint a challenging picture.
EP Petroecuador reported field production of approximately 370,000 barrels per day in January 2026, with the Sacha and Auca blocks leading output. While below peak levels, the steady numbers support government revenue forecasts and reduce the risk of mid-year austerity cuts.
