Ecuador's Oil Output Holds Steady at 370,000 Barrels Per Day in January, Easing Fiscal Pressure

Ecuador's state oil company EP Petroecuador reported crude oil production of approximately 370,000 barrels per day (bpd) as of late January 2026, according to institutional data published by the company.

The Sacha and Auca fields — both mature assets in the Oriente (Amazon) basin — led national production, consistent with their historical role as Ecuador's top-producing blocks.

January Production in Context

At 370,000 bpd, January's output translates to roughly 11.4 million barrels for the month. This represents:

• A decline from the 475,000 bpd reported in November 2025
• Alignment with the government's 2026 budget projection, which assumed lower production than 2025
• Continued dependence on ageing fields — Sacha has been producing since 1972

The production decline is partly structural: Ecuador's legacy fields are depleting, and new investment has been slow. However, the government expects private-sector production to add over 4,000 additional bpd in 2026 from newer concessions.

The Price Factor

The 2026 national budget was built on an assumed oil price of approximately $58-62 per barrel for Ecuador's Oriente crude blend. As of early February, actual prices have hovered near that range — meaning the government is roughly on target for revenue projections.

However, the government had already reduced its price projection compared to 2025, reflecting both global market uncertainty and the reality that Ecuador's crude trades at a discount to WTI (West Texas Intermediate) due to its heavier grade.

What About the Mining Boom?

While oil revenues stabilize, the Noboa administration is betting on large-scale mining as a second revenue pillar. A major copper-gold project (likely the Cascabel or Llurimagua projects in Imbabura/Cotacachi) is reportedly 20% complete in its construction phase. Mining royalties won't materially contribute to the budget until 2028-2029 at the earliest.

What This Means for Expats

Oil is not just an energy story in Ecuador — it's a fiscal story:

• Oil revenue funds approximately 25-30% of Ecuador's national budget. When production or prices fall, the government cuts spending — which means fewer public services, delayed infrastructure, and potential austerity measures
• Steady January production reduces the risk of mid-year budget cuts that could affect everything from road maintenance to IESS (social security) healthcare quality
• Dollarization protects expats from the currency devaluations that oil-dependent countries typically experience, but fiscal pressure can still result in higher taxes — as seen with recent VAT discussions
• The price is the wildcard: If global oil prices drop significantly below $58/barrel due to recession fears or OPEC decisions, Ecuador will face a fiscal gap regardless of production levels. Watch global oil markets as much as local production data

Sources: EP Petroecuador, El Diario, TC Televisión