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Ecuador is burning through diesel at a 23% faster rate to keep the lights on. Diesel prices jumped from .11 to .45 per gallon. And the government just failed — for the second time — to secure emergency thermal generation contracts.
Peak demand on the Ecuadorian electrical grid hit 5,333 MW on April 10 — roughly 20% above normal, and enough to trigger rolling blackouts across Guayaquil, Daule, and Samborondón. The Ministry of Environment and Energy suspended all scheduled grid maintenance on April 14 to free up capacity. Here's what's happening and what to expect.
Ecuador's state electricity company CELEC has filed a lawsuit in US federal court alleging that Progen, a private contractor, delivered refurbished and non-functional emergency generators under $149 million in contracts while draining the project's bank account to zero. The fraud is directly linked to the 2024 blackout crisis.
Mazar, the critical reservoir feeding Ecuador's largest hydroelectric complex, has fallen to just 22 meters above its operational minimum. With the dry season outlook uncertain, the specter of the 2024 blackouts -- when Ecuadorians lived through 14-hour daily power cuts -- is back on the table.
Colombia has indefinitely suspended electricity exports to Ecuador as part of an escalating trade war. Ecuador normally imports 8-10% of daily demand from Colombia, and replacing that power with costlier generation is running approximately $2 million per day.
After devastating blackouts throughout 2024 and into 2025, Ecuador's electricity outlook is the most optimistic in over a year. Heavy rains have refilled major reservoirs, Mazar dam hit maximum capacity, and a new 200 MW plant is online. But risks remain.
Ecuador's grid operator CENACE has ordered businesses to self-generate electricity from 9 AM to 11 PM on weekdays since March 17. The Coca Codo Sinclair dam is operating at 37% capacity, and Colombia has suspended 450 MW in electricity exports.
What started as a tariff dispute has spiraled into a full trade war between neighbors. Ecuador slapped 30% duties on Colombian imports; Colombia responded by suspending electricity sales and threatening counter-tariffs on 23 Ecuadorian products. The pipeline tariff jumped from $3 to $30 per barrel.
Ecuador’s monthly fuel price band adjusted at midnight. Extra and Ecopaís gasoline rose to $2.76/gallon, Súper Premium dropped to $3.19, and diesel barely moved at $2.70. The new prices hold through March 11.
