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Results for “fiscal policy”Clear
Economy Minister Sariha Moya presented Ecuador's fiscal efficiency formula at the IMF Spring Meetings in Washington on April 14. Her headline numbers: international reserves up from $3 billion to $11 billion, poverty down from 28% to 21% in 2025, and local-government payment delays cut by 85%. She credited the fuel subsidy phase-out that ran from June 2024 through September 2025.
Ecuador returned to international capital markets in January 2026 for the first time since its 2020 debt restructuring, selling $4 billion in sovereign bonds across two tranches. The move included a $3 billion debt buy-back and sent country risk plummeting from over 2,000 points to 460.
The IMF reached a staff-level agreement on the fifth review of Ecuador's $5 billion Extended Fund Facility on March 31. If approved by the Executive Board, Ecuador will receive a $394 million disbursement, bringing total draws to $3.33 billion -- 66% of the program.
The World Bank forecasts Ecuador's economy will grow just 2% in 2026, among the lowest rates in Latin America. A fiscal deficit of 3-4% of GDP, expiring security contributions, weakening oil receipts, and likely tax reform paint a challenging picture.
January 2026 crude production hit 466,400 bbl/d, down 1.8% year-over-year and 13% below a decade ago. Illegal pipeline taps surged from 36 in 2022 to 770 in 2024, costing $100 million annually. Ecuador needs 550,000 bbl/d just to cover basic fiscal needs.
Ecuador’s annual inflation rate hit a 20-month high in January 2026, driven almost entirely by a 20.79% spike in housing and utility costs after the government ended electricity and diesel subsidies. Food prices are rising too — plantains have roughly doubled, and the basic family basket now costs $822 a month.
Ecuarunari's new president Leonidas Iza announced that indigenous organizations will formally pursue a mandate revocation against President Daniel Noboa, citing broken promises and growing social discontent. The constitutional process requires over two million signatures and cannot begin until May 2026.
