Indigenous Coalition Launches Presidential Recall Drive Against Noboa — Needs 2 Million Signatures by May

Leonidas Iza, the newly elected president of Ecuarunari (the highland indigenous confederation and one of Ecuador's most powerful social organizations), announced on February 9, 2026 that the group will pursue a formal recall process (revocatoria de mandato) against President Daniel Noboa.

The decision was ratified at Ecuarunari's national congress and is being coordinated with Fenocin (Confederación Nacional de Organizaciones Campesinas, Indígenas, Negras y Montubias), whose new president Guido Perugachi announced a similar initiative on January 30.

Why Now?

Iza cited widespread social discontent with the Noboa administration, stating: "Most Ecuadorians trusted the President, but now there is a negative reaction to what the Government is doing."

The grievances include:

• Perceived failure to reduce violence despite continuous states of emergency
• Economic policy that indigenous leaders say favours large business over small producers and rural communities
• Austerity measures affecting social programs — Assembly member Paola Pabón recently warned that GAD-funded social projects (GAD = Gobierno Autónomo Descentralizado, Ecuador's municipal and provincial governments) "will have to close" under new spending rules

The Constitutional Path

Ecuador's Constitution (Article 105) establishes a specific framework for presidential recall:

• The request cannot be filed during the first year or last year of a presidential term
• Noboa was re-elected for the 2025-2029 period, meaning the window opens in May 2026
• Organizers must collect signatures equal to 15% of the national electoral roll — currently estimated at more than two million signatures
• If the petition is accepted by the CNE (Consejo Nacional Electoral — Ecuador's electoral authority), a national referendum is held
• The recall succeeds only if more than 50% of valid votes support removal

Political Viability

The recall process is constitutionally legitimate but historically difficult. No Ecuadorian president has ever been removed through this mechanism. The signature threshold alone is enormous — collecting two million verified signatures within the constitutional window requires massive organizational capacity.

That said, Ecuarunari and Fenocin together have significant mobilization power. The 2022 national strike led by Iza (then president of CONAIE) paralyzed the country for 18 days. The question is whether they can convert protest energy into a structured signature campaign.

What This Means for Expats

• No immediate impact: The recall process cannot formally begin until May, and signature collection would take months
• Protest risk: The announcement itself may trigger smaller demonstrations in Quito, Ambato, Riobamba, and other sierra cities in the coming weeks. These typically affect highway travel and urban transport
• Political instability signal: Even if the recall fails, the campaign creates ongoing political noise that affects investor confidence and potentially the exchange rate environment. Ecuador's dollarized economy insulates against currency risk, but political uncertainty can affect government bond yields and fiscal policy
• Watch for highway blockades: If the movement gains momentum, the indigenous strategy historically relies on road blockades (particularly the Pan-American Highway). Expats who travel between cities by car should monitor developments closely starting in May

Sources: El Universo, Infobae, La República EC, Expreso