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The Banco Central del Ecuador raised its 2026 GDP growth projection to 2.5%, up 0.7 points from its September forecast. Inflation is expected at 1.8%, private credit to grow 10%, and the external account to post a $6.4 billion surplus. 2025 closed at 3.7% growth — so momentum is slowing.
Ecuador's state electricity company CELEC has filed a lawsuit in US federal court alleging that Progen, a private contractor, delivered refurbished and non-functional emergency generators under $149 million in contracts while draining the project's bank account to zero. The fraud is directly linked to the 2024 blackout crisis.
Mazar, the critical reservoir feeding Ecuador's largest hydroelectric complex, has fallen to just 22 meters above its operational minimum. With the dry season outlook uncertain, the specter of the 2024 blackouts -- when Ecuadorians lived through 14-hour daily power cuts -- is back on the table.
Ecuador's grid operator CENACE has ordered businesses to self-generate electricity from 9 AM to 11 PM on weekdays since March 17. The Coca Codo Sinclair dam is operating at 37% capacity, and Colombia has suspended 450 MW in electricity exports.
Cuenca has become the third Ecuadorian city to adopt a formal climate action plan, covering electric bus deployment and water source protection. Bloomberg Philanthropies has awarded the city $150,000 for youth-led environmental projects as Cuenca enters 2026 under a dramatically different hydrological reality.
Colombia suspended electricity sales to Ecuador and imposed retaliatory tariffs after Ecuador slapped a 30% 'security tariff' on Colombian goods. With Ecuador's grid 79% dependent on hydroelectric power, the loss of Colombian energy imports raises the specter of the devastating 2024 blackouts.