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WTI crude oil tumbled more than 15% to $95/barrel on April 8 after Trump postponed his Iran infrastructure strike threat, then rebounded 7.3% to $101.28 on April 9. For Ecuador — both an oil exporter and a country where consumers pay market fuel prices — this volatility cuts both ways.
The Banco Central del Ecuador confirmed that GDP grew 3.7% in 2025, pulling the country out of the 2% contraction it suffered in 2024. Growth was driven by exports (+6.4%), investment (+5.6%), and household consumption (+2.7%). The 2026 forecast is a more modest 1.8%.
Colombia has indefinitely suspended electricity exports to Ecuador as part of an escalating trade war. Ecuador normally imports 8-10% of daily demand from Colombia, and replacing that power with costlier generation is running approximately $2 million per day.
Gasoline and diesel prices in Ecuador are expected to increase approximately 5% when the monthly band adjustment takes effect on April 12. Extra and ecopais gasoline currently at $2.89/gallon and diesel premium at $2.82/gallon are being pushed higher by WTI crude above $100/barrel.
