Ecuador's Cacao Boom Meets a Price Crash — From $13,000 to $3,581 Per Ton in One Year

Ecuador's cacao sector just went from boom to survival mode in twelve months.

The Numbers

The price collapse is dramatic:

| Period | International Price (per ton) | Farm Gate (per quintal) | |--------|-------------------------------|-------------------------| | Late 2024 | $13,000 (record high) | ~$400+ | | February 2025 | ~$9,000 | ~$400 | | February 2026 | $3,581 | ~$130 |

That's a 72% drop from the peak — and a 67% decline in what farmers actually receive at the farm gate in just one year.

Why Prices Crashed

Two factors converged:

1. African production recovered. Ivory Coast and Ghana — the world's #1 and #2 cacao producers — bounced back from the crop failures that drove prices to records. More supply means lower prices
2. Demand collapsed at high prices. Chocolate factories worldwide cut purchases by approximately 30% when cacao hit record levels. That demand destruction hasn't fully reversed even as prices have fallen

Ecuador's Position

Despite the price crash, Ecuador's cacao sector is in better shape than you might expect:

• Record production: Ecuador produced 600,000 tons in 2025 — a 27% increase over 2024. The country is now challenging Ghana for the world's #2 cacao exporter position behind Ivory Coast
• Massive export value: Through November 2025, Ecuador exported over $4.2 billion in cacao and cacao products
• Still profitable — barely: Production costs run between $110 and $140 per quintal. At $130/quintal farm gate prices, margins are razor-thin but positive for efficient producers. One farmer quoted by Expreso said the key is to "measure the penny"

The Coastal Impact

Cacao farming is concentrated in Ecuador's coastal lowlands and western slopes — primarily in:

• Guayas — the largest producing province
• Los Ríos — major production zone already dealing with flooding
• Manabí — significant production mixed with fishing communities
• Esmeraldas — growing production area in the north
• El Oro — southern coast near the Peruvian border

These are the same communities already under economic pressure from the Colombia trade war, flooding, and security concerns. A 67% income drop for farming families ripples through every local business — restaurants, shops, transport, and construction.

A Silver Lining

Lower rainfall and cooler temperatures in late 2025 reduced the January 2026 harvest, with exports falling 40% month-over-month. While that sounds bad, reduced supply is actually supporting prices by preventing an even steeper collapse. The market needs time for demand to catch up.

Ecuador's fine-aroma cacao (cacao Nacional or Arriba) also commands a premium over bulk commodity cacao, providing some price protection for producers who grow the higher-quality varieties.

What This Means for Expats

• Coastal economy: If you live in or have property in coastal farming communities, the local economy is under stress. Spending power among your neighbors has dropped significantly
• Chocolate prices: Paradoxically, lower cacao prices won't immediately translate to cheaper chocolate. Manufacturers locked in contracts at higher prices and are rebuilding margins
• Investment angle: Ecuador's cacao sector still exported $4.2B in 2025. At current prices, the country's competitive advantage (lower labor costs, fine-aroma premium) becomes even more important. This could be a buying opportunity for agribusiness investors
• Employment: Cacao is a labor-intensive crop. Reduced margins mean reduced hiring, seasonal worker layoffs, and slower wage growth in coastal communities
• Ecuador's bigger picture: Cacao is now the country's second-largest non-oil export. A sustained price slump affects government revenue, trade balance, and the overall health of the dollarized economy

Source: Expreso