INOCAR Issues Rough Seas Alert for Ecuador's Entire Coast — Aguaje Brings Dangerous Conditions on Carnival's Last Day

If you're at the beach today, pay attention.

The Alert

Ecuador's Naval Oceanographic Institute (INOCAR — Instituto Oceanográfico y Antártico de la Armada) has issued a rough seas advisory for Tuesday, February 17 — the final day of Carnival — warning of agitated ocean conditions along Ecuador's entire continental and insular coastline.

The cause is an aguaje (spring tide), a gravitational phenomenon that occurs approximately every 14 days when the Sun, Moon, and Earth align during full and new moon phases. This alignment produces higher-than-normal tides, stronger currents, and more powerful wave breaks at the shore.

Waves from the west and southwest Pacific are intensifying throughout the day.

Expected Wave Heights

| Province | Wave Height | |----------|-------------| | Esmeraldas | 0.60 – 1.00 m | | Manabí | 0.50 – 1.10 m | | Santa Elena – Guayas | 0.60 – 1.20 m | | El Oro | 0.40 – 0.70 m | | Galápagos (west/south) | 0.90 – 1.50 m |

These numbers may look modest, but the real danger isn't wave height — it's rip currents. Aguaje conditions create fast-moving seaward currents near river mouths and beach break zones that can overpower even strong swimmers.

Why Today Is Especially Dangerous

The timing couldn't be worse. Today is the last day of Carnival — Ecuador's biggest beach weekend of the year:

• Salinas alone expected 250,000 to 300,000 visitors over the holiday
• Hotel occupancy across Santa Elena province hit 80–90%
• Montañita, Ayangue, and Atacames are packed with holiday crowds
• Many beachgoers are tourists unfamiliar with local ocean conditions

The Secretaría Nacional de Gestión de Riesgos (SNGR — Ecuador's national risk management agency) has published updated beach flag maps for February 17–19. Yellow flags mean caution; red flags mean no entry to the water.

Recent Coastal Deaths

Ecuador's beaches claim lives every year, and the pattern is consistent:

• March 2025: Two 14-year-old adolescents drowned in Montañita after being dragged out by rip currents
• January 2025: One person died from strong waves in La Libertad, Santa Elena
• December 2024: Two deaths in Manta; two families evacuated in Sucre due to wave damage
• During one recent weekend in Montañita alone, there were 9 drowning alerts and 23 people rescued

Security Deployment

The Ecuadorian Navy and Armed Forces have deployed significant resources for Carnival beach safety:

• 1,400+ personnel including police, military, and transit commission officers
• 65 lifeguards across Santa Elena peninsula beaches
• Drone aerial surveillance for beach monitoring
• 24/7 vehicle checkpoints and beach patrols
• Life jacket verification and vessel capacity checks at all ports
• Jambelí Island (El Oro) limited to approximately 1,500 daily visitors

What This Means for Expats

• Stay out of the water today if you're on the coast — especially near river mouths and beach breaks where rip currents concentrate
• Watch the flags: Red means no swimming, period. Yellow means extreme caution. Respect them — Ecuador loses beachgoers to drowning every Carnival
• If caught in a rip current: Don't fight it. Swim parallel to shore until you're out of the current, then swim back to the beach at an angle
• The next aguaje is worse: Another spring tide is forecast for February 27 – March 3, with waves up to 2.0 meters near Galápagos and 1.7 meters on the continental coast. If you have coastal plans in two weeks, check INOCAR updates first
• Monitor conditions: INOCAR posts real-time bulletins at inocar.mil.ec and the SNGR publishes beach flag maps at gestionderiesgos.gob.ec
• Emergency: Call 911 (ECU 911) — it's free from any phone, 24/7, and coordinates all maritime rescue

Sources: INOCAR, Expreso, El Universo, Secretaría Nacional de Gestión de Riesgos, Armada del Ecuador