Breaking news, politics, economy, visas, safety, and lifestyle updates for expats living in Ecuador.
The World Bank forecasts Ecuador's economy will grow just 2% in 2026, among the lowest rates in Latin America. A fiscal deficit of 3-4% of GDP, expiring security contributions, weakening oil receipts, and likely tax reform paint a challenging picture.
A U.S. Army Corps of Engineers study warns that Coca River erosion could reach the 1,500 MW Coca Codo Sinclair hydroelectric plant's water intake by 2026. The plant provides roughly one-third of Ecuador's national electricity. Recent rains have improved reservoir levels, and a new 200 MW plant has come online.
Ecuador is positioned to become the world's second-largest cocoa grower behind Cote d'Ivoire. Anecacao projects exports exceeding 623,000 metric tons in 2026, up from 375,720 MT in 2023. The country is targeting 800,000 MT by the end of the decade.
LATAM Ecuador launched the first-ever direct flight from Cuenca to the Galapagos Islands on March 31. The twice-weekly Airbus A319 service starts at $310 round-trip and eliminates the need for an overnight layover in Quito or Guayaquil.
January 2026 crude production hit 466,400 bbl/d, down 1.8% year-over-year and 13% below a decade ago. Illegal pipeline taps surged from 36 in 2022 to 770 in 2024, costing $100 million annually. Ecuador needs 550,000 bbl/d just to cover basic fiscal needs.
The Development Bank of Latin America (CAF) signed a $42 million loan agreement with Cuenca for urban infrastructure development -- one of the largest multilateral financing packages for an Ecuadorian city outside Quito and Guayaquil. The investment comes as Cuenca faces mounting infrastructure strain from flooding and aging utility systems.
After devastating blackouts throughout 2024 and into 2025, Ecuador's electricity outlook is the most optimistic in over a year. Heavy rains have refilled major reservoirs, Mazar dam hit maximum capacity, and a new 200 MW plant is online. But risks remain.
Ecuador's Constitutional Court declared the Strategic Economic Cooperation Agreement (SECA) with South Korea constitutional, clearing the final legal hurdle. 98.8% of Ecuador's exportable products will enter Korea tariff-free, opening access to 51 million consumers.
Ecuador's tax authority SRI has implemented new withholding rates effective March 1 under resolution NAC-DGERCGC26-00000009. The 2.75% rate has been eliminated and replaced with a 5% bracket, and the default withholding rate has increased to 3%.
Ecuador's Constitutional Court declared the SECA trade agreement with South Korea compliant on March 19. The deal grants tariff-free access for 98.8% of Ecuadorian products and covers investment, technology transfer, energy, and infrastructure cooperation.
Ecuador and the United States signed a bilateral trade agreement on March 18 granting tariff-free access for 53% of Ecuador's non-oil exports, worth $2.786 billion. The deal covers 1,673 tariff subheadings including bananas, shrimp, cocoa, coffee, and flowers.
Ecuador's grid operator CENACE has ordered businesses to self-generate electricity from 9 AM to 11 PM on weekdays since March 17. The Coca Codo Sinclair dam is operating at 37% capacity, and Colombia has suspended 450 MW in electricity exports.
