Paute Water Inflows Fell Below Historical Averages as Ecuador Enters the Dry Season

Ecuador entered its dry season with below-average water inflows in the Paute Integral system. In August 2026, the average inflow to Mazar was 56 cubic meters per second, compared with a historical August average of 90 cubic meters per second, according to an analysis published by Primicias.

The country's dry season, or estiaje, begins in September 2026 and is expected to extend through March 2027, the Ministry of Energy confirmed. Dry-season conditions matter because lower river flows reduce hydroelectric generation.

The Paute comparison

The historical average flow for the Paute River basin in August is 136.4 cubic meters per second. The average in August 2026 was 94.8 cubic meters per second.

The Mazar comparison is narrower but important. Historical August inflows average 90 cubic meters per second; the August 2026 average was 56. Ricardo Buitrón, an electrical consultant quoted in the report, said the result showed that August had been quite dry compared with historical flows. He added that September could be drier if the trend continues, while noting that El Niño makes the climate difficult to predict.

The historical average for September is 68 cubic meters per second, meaning the August 2026 figure for Mazar was already below that September benchmark.

Why Mazar matters

Paute Integral operates as a cascade of three hydroelectric plants. The system includes Mazar at 170 megawatts, Paute-Molino at 1,100 megawatts, and Sopladora at 487 megawatts, with the latter using the smaller Amaluza reservoir.

Together, the plants represent about 3,350 megawatts of hydroelectric generation, nearly 76% of Ecuador's average demand in August 2026.

Mazar has the lowest generating capacity of the three but the critical reservoir function. Its maximum level is 2,153 meters above sea level, while the critical level is 2,115 meters. At 5:00 p.m. on September 1, the reservoir stood at 2,147.2 meters.

The report notes that in previous situations, when Mazar reached the 2,115-meter level, the complex left operation and Ecuador experienced power cuts, including in 2024. The source does not announce a blackout schedule or say that rationing is certain.

Other generation and imports

The report also compares the Agoyán plant's flows. Its average flow was 38.3 cubic meters per second in August 2025 and 20 cubic meters per second in August 2026.

One option identified in the analysis is buying electricity from Colombia to preserve water in Mazar. The report says there is a high probability that the price could be higher between November and December 2026, because Colombia expects more drought during those months as El Niño develops.

Coca Codo Sinclair is a different case because it is a run-of-river plant without a reservoir like Mazar. Its average flow in August 2026 was 367 cubic meters per second, above its historical August average of 330, but below its August 2025 average of 414.

What This Means for Expats

The available report does not provide a power-cut calendar or a guarantee of future rationing. It does provide a set of indicators residents can follow: Mazar's reservoir level, Paute and Mazar inflows, Colombia's electricity availability and price, and official updates as the dry season progresses.

For residents in the highlands, the useful distinction is between a current hydrology signal and a confirmed service interruption. August's numbers show less water than historical benchmarks; they do not specify when or where electricity service would change.

Source: Primicias